Apsattv
07-03-2008, 02:23 AM
From http://business.smh.com.au/freetoair-landing-the-hits-so-far-in-tv-sector-brawl/20080305-1x7x.html
IT IS no coincidence that seconds after the common ownership links between Channel Nine and Foxtel were broken a real dogfight erupted between the pay and free TV sectors - with Nine happily throwing punches.
The free-to-air broadcasters are intent on breaking pay TV's momentum this year and the still-under-wraps FreeView project, lifted directly from Britain, is the latest tactic.
The commercial broadcasters have been quietly suggesting for some months that their new digital standard definition and high-definition TV channels - 15 in total will be operating by next year - will slow the household viewing migration to pay TV.
More channel choice on free-to air, they say, will scratch the public itch for more programming options. Interestingly, the free-to-air broadcasters are not alone in claiming the gloss will come off pay TV audiences and subscription growth over the next two years. Prominent media buyers are taking the same line with some qualification. They are not predicting radical, overnight changes to audience trends but they do expect change.
Free TV's 15-channel promise does not eventuate until this time next year - now there are 10 channels available and most of the content on the secondary HD channels is either simulcast from the analog feed or a mix of about 50 hours of new content in a 168-hour week.
But media buyers are generally predicting viewing will swing back to the free-to-air broadcasters if their digital content offering in 2009 is compelling.
James Parkinson, the national trading director for the $1.6 billion media buyer Group M, is one advocating some change from the arrival of new digital channels on free-to-air.
"If there is more higher quality viewing choice then it has got to have a positive impact on free-to-air," he says. "If 70 per cent of the country which doesn't have pay TV gets more choice, does that have an impact on which subscription TV gets taken up? I reckon it does, because suddenly there won't be that burning need to have more choice."
Universal McCann's managing director, Henry Tajer, agrees: "If you think about pay TV, choice has been its growth catalyst so you put choice into free-to-air and that creates a recipe for [audience] growth."
While media buyers and even the free-to-air networks are saying next year is when the rub really starts for pay TV's growth curve, Fusion Strategy's Steve Allen argues that it started in the first three weeks of the 2008 ratings season.
Allen says pay TV's audience growth rate has halved in the opening three weeks of this year compared with the same time in 2007, and this is due in large part to free-to-air TV offering better programs. He predicts pay TV's audience growth will continue to slow for all of this year.
"We said last year pay TV's growth will come off and so far this year its [audience] growth rate has more than halved. It will seesaw a bit, but we think commercial free-to-air TV is going to grow its audience and most of that growth is going to come from pay TV. Pay will continue to grow, but nothing like the clip it has and we think that goes for everything - new subscribers, churn rate and viewing levels."
Tune in.
IT IS no coincidence that seconds after the common ownership links between Channel Nine and Foxtel were broken a real dogfight erupted between the pay and free TV sectors - with Nine happily throwing punches.
The free-to-air broadcasters are intent on breaking pay TV's momentum this year and the still-under-wraps FreeView project, lifted directly from Britain, is the latest tactic.
The commercial broadcasters have been quietly suggesting for some months that their new digital standard definition and high-definition TV channels - 15 in total will be operating by next year - will slow the household viewing migration to pay TV.
More channel choice on free-to air, they say, will scratch the public itch for more programming options. Interestingly, the free-to-air broadcasters are not alone in claiming the gloss will come off pay TV audiences and subscription growth over the next two years. Prominent media buyers are taking the same line with some qualification. They are not predicting radical, overnight changes to audience trends but they do expect change.
Free TV's 15-channel promise does not eventuate until this time next year - now there are 10 channels available and most of the content on the secondary HD channels is either simulcast from the analog feed or a mix of about 50 hours of new content in a 168-hour week.
But media buyers are generally predicting viewing will swing back to the free-to-air broadcasters if their digital content offering in 2009 is compelling.
James Parkinson, the national trading director for the $1.6 billion media buyer Group M, is one advocating some change from the arrival of new digital channels on free-to-air.
"If there is more higher quality viewing choice then it has got to have a positive impact on free-to-air," he says. "If 70 per cent of the country which doesn't have pay TV gets more choice, does that have an impact on which subscription TV gets taken up? I reckon it does, because suddenly there won't be that burning need to have more choice."
Universal McCann's managing director, Henry Tajer, agrees: "If you think about pay TV, choice has been its growth catalyst so you put choice into free-to-air and that creates a recipe for [audience] growth."
While media buyers and even the free-to-air networks are saying next year is when the rub really starts for pay TV's growth curve, Fusion Strategy's Steve Allen argues that it started in the first three weeks of the 2008 ratings season.
Allen says pay TV's audience growth rate has halved in the opening three weeks of this year compared with the same time in 2007, and this is due in large part to free-to-air TV offering better programs. He predicts pay TV's audience growth will continue to slow for all of this year.
"We said last year pay TV's growth will come off and so far this year its [audience] growth rate has more than halved. It will seesaw a bit, but we think commercial free-to-air TV is going to grow its audience and most of that growth is going to come from pay TV. Pay will continue to grow, but nothing like the clip it has and we think that goes for everything - new subscribers, churn rate and viewing levels."
Tune in.